BMI raises 2024 CPO price forecast to 881 USD per ton

KUALA LUMPUR, Aug. 21 (Xinhua) — BMI Country Risk and Industry Research has made an upward revision to 3,850 ringgit per ton (881 U.S. dollars) from 3,750 ringgit per ton to its forecast for the average price of Bursa Malaysia-listed third-month crude palm oil futures contracts in 2024, equivalent to an increase of 2.7 percent.
The Fitch Group unit said in a note on Tuesday that this upward revision indicated that its earlier view that prices would ease throughout the second half has not occurred to the extent that it expected.
However, its forecast remained below consensus and of the view that prices will face bearish headwinds into 2025, expecting an average price of 3,700 ringgit up to the end of 2024.
Throughout the remainder of 2024 and into 2025, BMI expects that ample supplies, competition from alternative edible oils, and unsure import demand will weigh on the palm oil market.
Meanwhile, the expected onset of a La Nina event in the fourth quarter of 2024 and the coming into force of the EU Deforestation Regulation at the start of 2025 could further compound pressures.
In the near term, it noted increased tension in the Middle East, which could see fuel prices and biofuel feedstock demand increase, represents the principal upside risk to the outlook. ■